Gold futures are currently experiencing four consecutive days of declines, as prospects for rate cuts from the world’s largest economy continue to face a watershed moment. Conviction for additional policy easing has drastically dwindled since the last Fed meeting, with half of polled economists altering their views and sidelining with a cautious, “wait and see” approach from the Fed onwards.

National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett noted that certain October figures may “simply never show up,” as some agencies were unable to collect data during the shutdown. Given the backlog of crucial data on the employment, inflation and growth fronts, does indeed make future projections hard, forcing forecasters to downgrade their “convictions”.

Furthermore, aggravating the scale back of expectations for a 25bps rate cut in December was the lack of conviction of Fed officials for further easing, which struck a hawkish tone and forced money market participants to reconsider their ultra dovish views.

On the back of this repositioning and excessive overvaluation worries, equity futures slipped further from record highs as investors turned risk mode off. Treasuries on the other hand benefited and placed firm pressure on safe haven assets such as gold, with its impressive rebound rally coming to an abrupt end, as investors showcasing preference for interest-bearing (yielding) assets.

Gold remains still one of the best performing assets of 2025, soaring to a record high of $4380 area amidst a flurry of bullish catalysts that supercharged its rise in the second quarter. It now floats at $4000 per oz.

Markets nevertheless, patiently await for the release of September’s delayed employment data on Thursday, hoping to finally be getting a glimpse on the state of the US labour market after the end of the longest US government shutdown.

On the employment front, initial jobless claims totalled 232k in the week ending of 18th of October said the Bureau of labour statistics, gyrating near historical averages.

The releases of October’s Fed meeting minutes is another event that would be extremely important for forecasters in regards to information gathering and is scheduled for tomorrow Wednesday.

Technical Analysis

Gold Chart Gold slides for the fourth consecutive session as rebound rally abruptly snaps

Resistance: 4130 (R1), 4250 (R2), 4360(R3)
Support: 4000 (S1), 3920 (S2), 3820(S3)