- The Indian Rupee gives up early gains against the US Dollar ahead of US-China trade talks.
- Growth in India’s HSBC Composite PMI in October cools down due to moderate growth in the service sector activity.
- FIIs sold shares worth Rs. 1,165.94 crores in the Indian stock market on Thursday.
The Indian Rupee (INR) gives back early gains and turns negative against the US Dollar (USD) during late trading hours in India on Friday. The USD/INR pair rebounds to near 88.00 as the US Dollar ticks higher ahead of trade talks between US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and China Vice Premier He Lifeng, which will start on Friday at the sidelines of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Malaysia.
During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades higher to near 99.00.
On Thursday, the Chinese ministry confirmed that Vice Premier He will visit Malaysia for the ASEAN summit. Top negotiators from both the US and China are expected to discuss the recently announced export controls on rare earth minerals by Beijing.
Investors will pay close attention to high-stakes trade talks between the US and China, as global market sentiment remained risk-off in the past few weeks amid trade frictions between both nations.
On the domestic front, investors will focus on the delayed release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September and the preliminary S&P Global PMI data for October.
Usually, the US CPI data is released in the second or third week of every month. However, it was delayed due to the ongoing federal shutdown.
Economists expect the US headline inflation to have risen at a faster pace of 3.1% on an annualized basis against the prior release of 2.9%, with core figures growing steadily by 3.1%. On a monthly basis, the headline and the core CPI are estimated to have risen by 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively.
Signs of price pressures cooling would prompt market expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts further. However, hot inflation figures are unlikely to dampen Fed dovish bets as latest commentaries from officials indicated that they are more concerned about deteriorating labor market conditions.
Meanwhile, the S&P Global report is expected to show that the Services PMI rose at a moderate pace to 53.5, with Manufacturing PMI expanding steadily to 52.0.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.03% | 0.04% | 0.23% | 0.20% | 0.23% | 0.16% | 0.13% | |
| EUR | -0.03% | 0.01% | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.13% | 0.10% | |
| GBP | -0.04% | -0.01% | 0.18% | 0.15% | 0.19% | 0.11% | 0.09% | |
| JPY | -0.23% | -0.20% | -0.18% | -0.03% | 0.00% | -0.08% | -0.09% | |
| CAD | -0.20% | -0.20% | -0.15% | 0.03% | 0.02% | -0.05% | -0.08% | |
| AUD | -0.23% | -0.20% | -0.19% | -0.00% | -0.02% | -0.07% | -0.10% | |
| NZD | -0.16% | -0.13% | -0.11% | 0.08% | 0.05% | 0.07% | -0.02% | |
| CHF | -0.13% | -0.10% | -0.09% | 0.09% | 0.08% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Daily digest market movers: FIIs turn out to be sellers on Thursday
- The Indian Rupee gives back early gains against the US Dollar, as the preliminary HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) report for October has shown that the overall business activity grew at a moderate pace. The Composite PMI came in at 59.9, lower than 61.0 in September. The growth in the overall business activity slowed due to poor service activity growth. The Services PMI dropped to 58.8 from the prior reading of 60.9.
- The Manufacturing PMI has come higher at 58.4 than 57.7 in September in the wake of Goods and Services Tax (GST) rationalization. “The HSBC flash manufacturing PMI picked up a tad, likely on the back of GST rate cuts, which are buoying domestic demand and curbing cost pressures. New orders and output, both, are above the average Jan-Jul levels. However, the drag from US tariffs continues to show up in new export orders and future optimism, which remain below the Jan-Jul levels,“ Pranjul Bhandari, Chief India Economist at HSBC, said.
- On a broader note, the Indian Rupee remains firm due to growing optimism over the trade deal between the United States (US) and India.
- This week, a report from Mint showed that the US and India will reach a trade deal soon in which the import duty on products from India will be reduced to 15%-16%. Currently, the US is charging 50% tariffs on imports from India.
- Meanwhile, fears of outflow of foreign funds from the Indian stock market have renewed again as Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) sold Rs. 1,165.94 crores worth of shares on Thursday. FIIs turned out to be sellers after remaining buyers for five straight trading days. However, the pace of selling appears to be significantly higher than what they bought in the past days. In October 15-21, FIIs raised stake worth Rs. 2,262.08 crores in the Indian equity market.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR sees more downside towards 87.00
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The USD/INR pair falls to near 87.85 in early trading hours in India on Friday. The near-term trend of the pair remains bearish as it stays below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 88.11.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates below 40.00, suggesting a strong bearish momentum.
Looking down, the August 21 low of 87.07 will act as key support for the pair. On the upside, the 20-day EMA will be a key barrier.
Economic Indicator
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as The Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier.The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.
Next release:
Fri Oct 24, 2025 12:30
Frequency:
Monthly
Consensus:
3.1%
Previous:
2.9%
Source:
US Bureau of Labor Statistics
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future.