• Crude futures fell by 1% earlier this week, after Russia and Ukraine indicated willingness for reaching a peace deal and formally put an end to the 3 ½ year-long conflict.
  • Albeit the fall, WTI futures continue to gyrate aimlessly between the $58 and $61.50 area from a weekly point of view, as momentum wears out and traders await for further clues before repositioning themselves. Nevertheless, the key energy commodity is, on the grander scheme of things, experiencing its longest losing streak since 2023, being on track for its fourth straight months of declines.
  • Traders are also waiting for a breakthrough and possible sanctions lifts on Russian crude, which could flood the market with more barrels of oil, contributing to further oversupply of an already filled to the brim market and lead towards cheaper oil prices in the foreseeable future.
  • At the same time traders’ attention will fall up the looming OPEC+ gathering this weekend, bracing to receive further market signals. The oil cartel quasi-surprised the market last time around, by deciding to pause, expected additional output increases in the first quarter of 2026, disappointing WTI bears.

Technical Analysis of Oil

WTI Chart – Crude futures remain rangebound above the $58 per barrel area.

WTI Oil price daily chart with trendlines, support at 55.15 and resistance at 61.50, 65.60 and 70.40. Key events marked include tariff impacts, Israel–Iran strikes, and sanctions on Russia. Indicators shown: RSI, ADX, moving averages and MACD, reflecting mixed momentum.
  • Resistance: 61.50 (R1), 65.60 (R2), 70.40 (R3)
  • Support: 58.00 (S1), 55.15 (S2), 52.00 (S3)

Crude futures remained confined between the $61.50 (R1) and $58.00 (S1) levels for another week, as neither the bulls nor the bears took hold of the initiative.

We maintain our sideways bias for the commodity given the lack of volatility and participation. All three indicators below the chart confirm the inactivity and validate our sideways bias, with the price action staying within the aforementioned bounds.

The RSI indicator gyrates around the 50 level, +DI and -DI fluctuate around the 20 level and ADX remains supressed, showcasing the absence of momentum.

MACD and signal line also stay below yet close to the threshold. Should the bears take control we would reasonably expect to see WTI breaking definitively below the $58.00 (S1) level and head closer to the $55.15 (S2) support base. Should on the other hand the bulls take control of the initiative, we may see crude break above the $61.50 (R1) resistance ceiling and head for the $65.60 (R2) resistance area.