{"id":30371,"date":"2025-06-19T08:04:14","date_gmt":"2025-06-19T08:04:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/xlence-com.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?post_type=news_analysis&#038;p=30371"},"modified":"2025-12-17T10:01:49","modified_gmt":"2025-12-17T10:01:49","slug":"oil-weekly-update-energy-markets-in-a-state-of-nervous-anticipation-2","status":"publish","type":"news_analysis","link":"https:\/\/www.xlence.com\/en\/news-analysis\/oil-weekly-update-energy-markets-in-a-state-of-nervous-anticipation-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil Weekly Update: Energy markets in a state of nervous anticipation"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Oil futures continue to recapture the gains lost from a rather short-lived pullback since this past Friday\u2019s 12% spike, as tensions between Israel and Iran remain heightened and signs of de-escalatory negotiations remain scarce.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Intensity of the strikes from both sides somewhat softened halfway through the week, yet earlier today, Thursday, agencies broadcasted that Israeli warplanes have conducted successful strikes on nuclear facilities across Iran, including Natanz and the Arak (Khondab) heavy-water nuclear reactor that is capable of enriching plutonium, and Iranian ballistic missiles landed near a hospital in Beersheba, injuring 270 people. Mass evacuations from Tehran are also well underway after threats of targeting.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Furthermore, Israel has announced that it has achieved complete air superiority over Iranian airspace and warplanes are flying relatively uninterrupted, without much resistance. The IDF believes that it has already destroyed two thirds of Iranian missile launchers and now Israel has requested the aid of US bombers to devastate further Iran\u2019s nuclear and military facilities.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A nuclear compound dug 100m down inside in a mountain in Fordow, is the most critical target in the eyes of Israelis and with the help of US bombers, a successful strike would sever Iran\u2019s capabilities at enriching uranium for military purposes and force Tehran to come back to the negotiating table, but with vastly different requests.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Israel\u2019s objectives according to PM Netanyahu are to remove all nuclear and ballistic threats of Iran, but also create the necessary conditions that will lead to the downfall of the current regime.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Coup d&#8217;\u00e9tat speculations have also started to echo across media, with the son the last monarch of Persia, Shah Reza Pahlavi II, making online campaign appearances, calling Iranians to revolt against the regime of the Supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei and instead, under so called democratic conditions, instate him as the next ruler of Iran.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Oil markets now await the response of the United States \u2014 whether it will join Israeli forces in a full-frontal attack on Iran or adopt a more covert, supportive role in aiding Israel to achieve its objectives.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Needless to say, the prospects for a full-fledged war in the Middle East remain materially elevated and run the risk of plunging the entire region into warzone yet again.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Full out conflict in the Persian Gulf and more specifically in the Strait of Hormuz, could severely destabilize and outright disrupt the supply chain and logistic capabilities of the entire region, from which almost one third of global oil is flowing out of.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-technical-analysis-of-oil\"><strong>Technical Analysis<\/strong> <strong>of Oil<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>WTI Chart \u2013 <\/strong>Rallies towards the peak of last Friday\u2019s spike with strong momentum, as Israel-Iran hostilities escalate<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"741\" height=\"422\" src=\"https:\/\/www.xlence.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/oil-weekly-xlence-19-6.jpg\" alt=\"EUR\/USD chart displaying a bullish trend with upward movement indicated by green lines and arrows.\" class=\"wp-image-30372\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Resistance: \u00a0<\/strong>77.60 (R1), 80.70 (R2), 85.00 (R3)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Support: <\/strong>72.50 (S1), 68.50 (S2), 64.50 (S3)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>WTI futures managed to swiftly recover most of the short-lived pullback losses, rebounding strongly towards last Friday\u2019s $77.60 peak as traders project that the prolongment of the conflict between Israel and Iran could disrupt global supply flows of the commodity. We continue to hold a bullish bias for the commodity, given the traders\u2019 revamped interest and supporting our case is the RSI indicator which currently registers a value of 71, remaining close to overbought levels, the spiked-up ADX value of 80, signalling extreme strength of momentum, in tandem with the absence of selling pressure as indicated by the plummeted -DI. Furthermore, the fact that price action has detached from both the 12 and 26 EMA lines also highlights the overextension of the move and the overpowering force of the bulls. Should the bulls maintain control, we may see the commodity retesting the $77.60 (R1) resistance level and after a successful break and head on to challenge the $80.70 (R2) peak, last seen on 16<sup>th<\/sup> of January of 2025. Should the bears take over with strong momentum on their side, we would reasonably expect to see a break below, the closest line of defence for the bulls, around the $72.50 (S1) support level, and head south, towards the $68.50 (S2) support zone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Technical Analysis of Oil WTI Chart \u2013 Rallies towards the peak of last Friday\u2019s spike with strong momentum, as Israel-Iran hostilities escalate WTI futures managed to swiftly recover most of the short-lived pullback losses, rebounding strongly towards last Friday\u2019s $77.60 peak as traders project that the prolongment of the conflict between Israel and Iran could [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":28178,"template":"","news_category":[110],"class_list":["post-30371","news_analysis","type-news_analysis","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","news_category-weekly-insights-oil"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is 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