It has been quite easy to lose track of the UK government’s messaging regarding November’s budget, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
EUR/GBP is likely to trade much under 0.88
« Whether an increase in major income taxes is required or not is uncertain. After last week’s gyrations, the 10-year UK Gilt-German Bund spread ended the week at 186bp – some 14bp wider than the narrowest levels last week and most likely incorporating the view that the Labour government will pursue the path of political expediency over fiscal prudence by avoiding a major rise in taxes. »
« While EUR/GBP has come lower and short-term GBP rates higher on the view that the income tax rate may not be raised after all, we doubt EUR/GBP needs to trade much under 0.88, if at all. And a softer UK October CPI number tomorrow could easily see sterling under a bit more pressure again. »
