European natural Gas prices fell nearly 2.4% on Wednesday, pressured by reports of U.S.–Russia peace discussions despite colder weather accelerating storage withdrawals, ING’s commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.
Record shorts raise risk of squeeze
« European Gas prices also traded lower yesterday, with the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) settling almost 2.4% lower. Reports of peace talks between Russia and the US weighed on prices. However, colder weather has led to Gas storage falling at a faster pace over the last few days. EU Gas storage is now 81% full, down from a peak of just over 83% in mid-October. »
« Meanwhile, the latest positioning data shows that investment funds cut their net long in TTF by 8.7TWh to 15.6TWh, the smallest net long since March 2024. »
« This was driven by fresh shorts entering the market, with the gross short rising by 19TWh to 434.3TWh, yet another record gross short. It leaves the market vulnerable to a short-covering rally in the event of any supply surprises or extended cold snaps over the winter. »