The absence of concrete labour market data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics has forced market participants to shift their attention on “second-tier” data from the private sector, in order to form an accurate enough picture and update their forecasting models.
The fact that October’s Nonfarm payrolls data may never get released, since government workers were not collecting data during the longest US government shutdown, but also the postponement of the November NFP print until further notice, has created a sense of mysticism and speculation as to how the US employment market fares in recent months.
The latest ADP non-farm payrolls data for the month of November showcased a surprise -32k drop in private payrolls and intensified concerns about a deeper slowdown in the US labour market.
The shock data drove odds for a rate cut further north, ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision next week, with polled economists assigning a 90% chance, almost fully pricing in, to the scenario of a 25bps rate reduction.
The greenback fell to its lowest level in over 1 month on the back of the ADP print, whereas gold and silver saw inflows, trending close to their respective all time high record levels. US equities saw their rebound’s strength waning in recent days, yet major indices stay close to their respective historic highs.
Technical Analysis
S&P500 Chart – S&P500 futures on the verge of breaking into fresh highs after odds for cuts rise
Resistance: 6900 (R1), 7000 (R2), 7100 (R3)
Support: 6770 (S1), 6640 (S2), 6500 (S3)