• The much-desired catalyst that crude traders seek for, may arrive tomorrow Friday the 15th of August, at Alaska, as US President Trump and Russia’s President Putin will meet at the negotiations table and discuss the conditions under which the conflict in Ukraine may come to an end.
  • So far President Trump threatened multiple times the Russian, with the imposition of sanctions on oil, (alongside other nations such as India and China, who purchase Russian oil, with higher tariff levies) in efforts to coerce the federation into ending the war in Ukraine, but with no apparent results.
  • Earlier this week, Trump ramped up his rhetoric by warning that Russia would face “very severe consequences” if Putin refuses to end the war and tomorrow’s talks fail to make meaningful progress.
  • Furthermore, Ukrainian President Zelenskiy sought to be included in the talks, rejected ceding Donbas to Russia, a condition Putin has demanded, and sought Kyiv’s inclusion in talks, which could influence potential easing of US sanctions on Russian oil
  • Besides the upcoming talks, traders continued to place pressure on the commodity, pushing it lower towards the $63 per barrel area, after the International Energy Association’s monthly report issued a bearish outlook on the demand for the commodity next year, forecasting a global surplus of 2.96 million barrels per day, due to excess supply from OPEC members and allies.

Technical Analysis of Oil

WTI Chart – Bears remain in control yet US-Russia talks could induce shift in dynamic

wti/usd chart displaying a bullish trend with upward movement indicated by green lines and arrows.
  • Resistance: 64.60 (R1), 68.50 (R2), 72.50 (R3)
  • Support: 61.30 (S1), 58.00 (S2), 55.15 (S3)

Albeit the waning bearish pressure, WTI futures failed to find support around the $64.60 area and headed further south to an area last visited at the start of June of 2025, prior to the flare up of tensions between Israel and Iran.

We hold a bearish outlook bias for the commodity given its continual negative pressure, thus favouring projections for an extension of the move to lower ground, but at the same time we remain cautious ahead of tomorrow’s US-Russia peace talks for the war in Ukraine.

Supporting our case is the RSI value of 38 validating that the bears are in control, alongside the flare up of the -DI and the spike of the ADX at the 48 level, showcasing the momentum lies with the bears. Should the bears maintain control and extend their reign, we would reasonably expect to see a break below, $61.30 (S1) support level, and head south, towards the $58.00 (S2) support zone, and hit 3 month lows.

Should on the other hand the bulls take the initiative, we may see the commodity climbing above the $64.60 (R1) closest resistance level and after a successful break and head on to challenge the $68.50 (R2) area.