Silver futures climbed near record highs once again, as money market participants drastically increased the odds for a December rate cut, after softer economic data, dovish Fed speak, labour market weakness and speculations that a Trump loyalist will most likely head the Federal Reserve, once Powell’s term comes to an end in 2026.
Weak retail sales and declining consumer confidence reinforced bets for additional monetary policy easing practices, nudging economists to reassess their projections not only for the upcoming December meeting, but also for policy meetings in 2026.
Furthermore, chances for a 25bps cut in December were further supported reports indicating that White House National Economic Council Director, Kevin Hassett is the leading contender of becoming the head of the Federal Reserve. Hasset’s views broadly align with President Trump’s, analysts note, which are in favour of lower rates. As a result money markets went as far as pricing in odds for three additional rate cuts in 2026.
More specifically, Feds Fund Futures probabilities swiftly regained their footing and rose to the 85% level once again, conducting a U-turn and rebounding from last week’s 35% level.
From a technical point of view we must note however, that should silver finish today’s session flat, forming in a sense a doji near record highs, that could potentially be interpreted as an early reversal sign and could spark another wave of profit taking activity. There has been a strong wall of sellers between $53.30 and $54.45 area over the past month and a half, pushing prices lower and it is yet to be seen whether buyers will bid aggressively and push prices past the $54.45 all-time high peak in the next few sessions.
Technical Analysis
XAGUSD Chart – Silver futures gear up to challenge the recent all time high peak, as odds for December rate cut rise
Resistance: 54.20 (R1), 55.50 (R2), 56.75 (R3)
Support: 52.40 (S1), 51.30 (S2), 49.54 (S3)
