{"id":51296,"date":"2026-03-06T12:53:58","date_gmt":"2026-03-06T12:53:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/xlence-com.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/news-analysis\/gold-outlook-fed-rate-cut-risk-geopolitics-key-levels\/"},"modified":"2026-03-06T12:54:01","modified_gmt":"2026-03-06T12:54:01","slug":"gold-outlook-fed-rate-cut-risk-geopolitics-key-levels","status":"publish","type":"news_analysis","link":"https:\/\/www.xlence.com\/ko\/news-analysis\/gold-outlook-fed-rate-cut-risk-geopolitics-key-levels\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold Outlook: Fed Rate Cut Risk, Geopolitics &amp; Key Levels"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Gold\u2019s price has remained relatively stable <a href=\"https:\/\/www.xlence.com\/ko\/news-analysis\/golds-weekly-update-golds-price-renews-its-bullish-tendencies\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">since our last update<\/a>. In today\u2019s report, we are to discuss the Fed\u2019s interest rate decision next week, which in turn could prove to be a market mover for gold\u2019s price, validity of the negative correlation of the USD with Gold and how various geopolitical issues are progressing. Also we are to provide a technical analysis of the daily chart of gold\u2019s price for a more comprehensive understanding of gold\u2019s behavior.  <\/p>\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The main event for gold traders in the week is expected to be the release of the Fed\u2019s interest rate decision. Fed Fund Futures (FFF) currently imply a probability of 89% for the bank to announce a 25 basis points rate cut on the 10<sup>th<\/sup> of December. The same instrument also implies that the market expects the bank to continue cutting in April and September next year, which tends to imply a dovish orientation. Hence should the bank cut rates as expected, we may see the market\u2019s attention being shifted towards the bank\u2019s forward guidance which is to be included in the bank\u2019s accompanying statement, the bank\u2019s new projections, including the new dot plot and Fed Chairman Powell\u2019s press conference. Breaking down the prementioned elements, should the accompanying statement indicate that the bank may take a long recess in proceeding with its next steps, implying a possible on hold position for longer, we may see gold\u2019s price losing ground as such comments may be perceived as hawkish. Also should the new dot plot and the bank\u2019s economic projections imply less rate cuts that expected, we may see once again the precious metal\u2019s price falling. Last but not least, Fed Chairman Powell, is well known to be able to turn the market\u2019s sentiment in his press conference. He has done it in the past and may very well do it again on Wednesday, hence expect volatility for the shiny metal\u2019s price to be maintained for longer and should the Fed Chairman imply a wait and see position, we may see gold\u2019s price losing ground. In general, in indication that the Fed may for a prolonged period refrain from any rate cuts, gold\u2019s price could weaken. On the flip side, any dovish suggestions in the Fed\u2019s forward guidance, could support gold\u2019s price.          <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Also on a geopolitical level, the efforts for a peace plan in Ukraine are ongoing. On the one hand, the fact that they are still ongoing tends to be promising, yet the fact that Trump\u2019s deadline has come and gone, does not spell exactly good news. In any case the possibility of a dramatic curtain fall either way could signal volatility for gold\u2019s price. Should the efforts be crowned with success, a scenario that we tend to be cautious to materialise, we may see it weighing on gold\u2019s price while a falling through of the efforts could support gold\u2019s price as market uncertainty could be enhanced. Also the situation in Venezuela should remain under gold trader\u2019s magnifying glass, as an escalation of tensions in the US-Venezuelan relationships could support gold\u2019s price, while a possible easing of tensions could weigh on gold\u2019s price.    <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Last but not least, as noted before gold\u2019s price remained relatively stable over the past week, while the USD index which measures the reaction of the USD against a number of its counterparts in the FX market has declined for a second week in a row. Hence we do not see the negative correlation of the two trading instruments being in display currently, as gold\u2019s price has failed to benefit from the weakening of the USD. Furthermore we also note that the substantial rise of US bond yields, both shorter and longer term, over the past week, seems to have failed to materially weigh on gold\u2019s price.  <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-gold-technical-analysis\">Gold Technical analysis<\/h2>\n\n<p>Since our last update, gold\u2019s price failed to break the 4240 (R1) resistance line and stabilised below it. On the one hand the upward trendline remains intact, continuing to imply the upward potential of the precious metal\u2019s price, while the RSI indicator remains between the readings of 50 and 70, continuing to imply a bullish predisposition of the market. Yet the recent stabilisation of gold\u2019s price in conjunction with the failure of the shiny metal\u2019s price to form a new higher peak tends to imply a sideways motion.   <\/p>\n\n<p>Similar signals come from the narrowing of the Bollinger bands that imply lower volatility for gold\u2019s price, which in turn may allow the sideways motion to be maintained. For a bullish outlook to be revived we would require gold\u2019s price to break above the 4240 (R1) resistance line clearly, and to start aiming if not reaching the 4375 (R2) resistance base, which is an All Time High level for the bullion\u2019s price. For a bearish outlook to be adopted, we would require gold\u2019s price to drop, break initially the prementioned upward trendline in a first signal of an interruption of the upward movement and continue to break also the 4130 (S1) support line clearly and start actively aiming for the 4000 (S2) support level.  <\/p>\n\n<p><strong>XAU\/USD Daily Chart<\/strong><\/p>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"698\" height=\"323\" src=\"https:\/\/xlence-com.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Picture1.png\" alt=\"EUR\/USD chart displaying price action trends, with a focus on gold market influences.\" class=\"wp-image-44109\"\/><\/figure>\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Support: 4130 (S1), 4000 (S2), 3890 (S3)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Resistance: 4240 (R1), 4375 (R2), 4500 (R3)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Gold\u2019s price has remained relatively stable since our last update. In today\u2019s report, we are to discuss the Fed\u2019s interest rate decision next week, which in turn could prove to be a market mover for gold\u2019s price, validity of the negative correlation of the USD with Gold and how various geopolitical issues are progressing. Also [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":50998,"template":"","news_category":[180],"class_list":["post-51296","news_analysis","type-news_analysis","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","news_category-weekly-insights-gold"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.4 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Gold Weekly Update: Fed Rate Cut Risk, Geopolitics &amp; Key Levels<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Gold price analysis: Fed rate-cut expectations and geopolitical risks drive demand as technicals signal bullish momentum.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.xlence.com\/ko\/news-analysis\/gold-outlook-fed-rate-cut-risk-geopolitics-key-levels\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ko_KR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Gold Outlook: Fed Rate Cut Risk, Geopolitics &amp; 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