{"id":53816,"date":"2026-04-09T12:17:05","date_gmt":"2026-04-09T12:17:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/xlence-com.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?post_type=news_analysis&p=53816"},"modified":"2026-04-09T12:18:41","modified_gmt":"2026-04-09T12:18:41","slug":"us-iran-ceasefire-deal-at-risk","status":"publish","type":"news_analysis","link":"https:\/\/www.xlence.com\/ko\/news-analysis\/us-iran-ceasefire-deal-at-risk\/","title":{"rendered":"US-Iran ceasefire deal at risk"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Uncertainty surrounding US-Iran ceasefire deal could boost oil prices<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The US-Iranian ceasefire deal seems to be quite fragile as Israel continues to bomb Lebanon. Iran says that the ceasefire deal included Lebanon, while US President Trump stated that the US would take action should Iran fail to adhere to the terms of the \u201creal\u201d ceasefire deal. Also there is little increase in shipping through the Staits of Hormuz and the reopening of the Straits remains key for any ceasefire deal to be achieved. It should be note that the hopes for a more permanent ceasefire deal to be achieve have eased considerably.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Xlence Research Team opinion<\/strong><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Should there be further signals that the temporary US-Iranian ceasefire deal is well-established, we may see oil prices retreating further, while an escalation of tensions between the US and Iran could feed oil bulls on\u00a0 fundamental level, as the supply side of the international oil market could come under threat again. \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

WTI H4 Chart<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
    \n
  • Support: 107.15 (S1), 119.40 (S2), 130.00 (S3)<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Resistance: 96.80 (R1), 76.90 (R2), 67.20 (R3)\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    The drop of WTI\u2019s price action was halted and the commodity\u2019s price action even corrected a bit higher breaking the 96.80 (S1) resistance line turning it back to a support. We note that RSI indicator seems to continue to imply a bearish predisposition of the market, albeit not as intense. Should the bears regain control over WTI\u2019s price action ,we may see it breaking the 96.80 (S1) support line and start aiming for the 76.90 (S2) support level. \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Fed\u2019s hawkish minutes provided little support for the USD<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    The USD also seems to have halted its drop in the FX market yesterday. The release of the Fed\u2019s March meeting minutes proved that there seems to be wider acceptance of a more hawkish stance among Fed policymakers, yet at the same time failed to provide substantial support for the greenback. Overall though the majority of Fed policymakers seem to be more worried about inflation rather than jobs. We highlight the release of US PCE rates for February in today\u2019s early American session as the next big test for the USD, while the release of the final US GDP rate for Q425, may also prove a substantial market mover should the actual rate differ substantially from expectations.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Xlence Research Team opinion<\/strong><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    A possible acceleration of the rates implying a resilience of inflationary pressures in the US economy could provide some support for the USD as it could enhance market expectations for the Fed to remain on hold for longer. Also a substantial acceleration of the final US GDP rate for Q425 could provide some support for the greenback. Finally on a fundamental level, we highlight the USD\u2019s safe haven status as a major issue in the FX market. A possible increase of market uncertainty regarding the US-Iranian ceasefire deal, could provide support for the USD and vice versa.\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    USD\/JPY H4 Chart<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
      \n
    • Support: 157.50 (S1), 154.30 (S2), 152.10 (S3)<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Resistance: 160.50 (R1), 164.40 (R2), 168.00 (R3)\u00a0\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

      In contrast to EUR\/USD viewed in yesterday\u2019s report USD\/JPY maintain a clearcut sideways motion, between the 157.50 (S1) and the 160.50 (R1) levels. Also the RSI indicator has reached the reading of 50, implying a rather indecisive market, backing our sideways motion bias. For a bullish outlook to emerge we would require a clear breaking of the R1, while for a bearish outlook the pair\u2019s price action has to fall below the S1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      US stock markets\u2019 rally halted<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

      The rally of US stock markets seems to have been halted, at least for now as market doubts for the US-Iranian ceasefire deal emerged. Overall the risk on market sentiment seems to have eased and more cautious approach emerged. Also the release of the Fed\u2019s meeting minutes seemed to have little impact on US equities yesterday, nevertheless we still note the release of the US PCE rate for February as a possible market mover for US stock markets\u00a0 later today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Xlence Research Team opinion<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

      A more risk oriented approach bey the markets could provide a boost for Bitcoin\u2019s price,\u00a0 while a more cautious approach by the market could weigh on the crypto market, given the market\u2019s perception for a riskier nature of the cryptocurrency market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      US 500 Cash H4 Chart<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
      \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
        \n
      • Support: 6710 (S1), 6630 (S2), 6530 (S3)<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • Resistance: 6805 (R1), 6890 (R2), 6970 (R3)\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

        On a technical level, S&P 500 hit a ceiling on the 6805 (R1) resistance line. Despite the RSI indicator dropping below the reading of 70, it still tends to imply a bullish predisposition of the markets. Should the bulls maintain control as expected, we may see the index breaking the 6805 (R1) resistance line and start aiming for the 6890 (R2) resistance area.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Bitcoin hits a ceiling<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

        Over the past two days the hopes of crypto traders\u00a0 were on the rise as Bitcoin seemed to be staging a rebound. Yet the hopes of crypto traders were crushed, as bitcoin’s price hit the ceiling and corrected lower yesterday. We still view the market sentiment as the main issue on a fundamental level, for the crypto king and the war in Iran tends to play a key role currently.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Xlence Research Team opinion<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

        A more risk oriented approach bey the markets could provide a boost for Bitcoin\u2019s price,  while a more cautious approach by the market could weigh on the crypto market, given the market\u2019s perception for a riskier nature of the cryptocurrency market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        BTC\/USD H4 Chart<\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
        \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
          \n
        • Support: 70330 (S1), 67730 (S2), 65550 (S3)<\/li>\n\n\n\n
        • Resistance: 72750 (R1), 75950 (R2), 79240 (R3)\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

          BTC\/USD <\/strong>was on the rise since the start of the week, yet hit a ceiling yesterday at the 72750 (R1) resistance line. Despite the correction lower, the bulls may still not be totally out of the picture yet for the time being we see the case for a possible stabilisation of the cryptocurrency\u2019s price action. For a renewal of the bullish outlook we would require Bitcoin\u2019s price to form a new higher peak breaking the 72750 (R1) resistance line and setting the 75950 (R2) resistance barrier in its sights.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          Disclaimer: This information is not considered investment advice or an investment recommendation, but instead a marketing communication.<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

          <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

          The EUR\/USD pair gains traction to near 1.1915 during the early European session on Wednesday, bolstered by a weaker US Dollar (USD).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":48434,"template":"","news_category":[107],"class_list":["post-53816","news_analysis","type-news_analysis","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","news_category-latest-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nUS-Iran ceasefire deal signals relief for the markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"US-Iran ceasefire deal eases market fears, dropping oil, weakening USD, boosting equities and supporting gold.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.xlence.com\/en\/news-analysis\/us-iran-ceasefire-deal-at-risk\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ko_KR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" 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